Top Traders Unplugged

In this episode, Niels hosts Yoav Git to explore inflation risk, bond fragility, and the changing role of trend following in a world defined by supply shocks and declining trust. Drawing on recent research and market behavior, the conversation examines why traditional bond allocations struggle during inflationary regimes and how commodity trend strategies may offer structural resilience. The discussion spans geopolitics, deglobalization, energy markets, fixed income autocorrelation, and the limits of forecasting macro outcomes. Rather than predicting inflation’s path, the episode focuses on portfolio construction that can endure multiple regimes. What emerges is a disciplined argument for robustness ov...

Today we discuss one of the most popular and influential economic books of the last few decades - The Winner’s Curse. Originally published in 1994, a new version has just been released and we are joined by co-author Alex Imas who wrote the new edition alongside Nobel Prize winner Richard Thaler. When are we likely to spend a windfall and when are we likely to save it? When is it most dangerous to bid for business against competitors? And are ‘arbitrage’ opportunities in markets really a free lunch?-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND...

Today, we are joined by Nick Baltas to examine how narratives, signals, and structural design are reshaping trend following at the start of 2026. The conversation moves from investor storytelling and information digestion to a sober review of what truly drove dispersion in 2025. We explore why speed and universe choice mattered more than expected, why recent outcomes may be misleading, and why reacting to performance is often a mistake. The discussion then turns technical, unpacking new academic research on nonlinear momentum, signal construction, and the deeper mechanics behind trend following’s defensive behavior during stress. The episode closes with a re...

As the long era of neoliberal certainty frays, Mark Blyth argues that we are drifting back toward a 19th century world of rival blocs, imperial habits and dangerous illusions. In this conversation, he traces how repeated “software crashes” of capitalism produced inflation, austerity, populism and now a return to industrial policy and great power confrontation. He connects deficits, demographics, migration, and housing with the lived reality of stagnant wages and rising prices. Along the way, he questions central bank mythology, challenges deficit obsession, and asks whether politics can adapt before events force a far harsher reset.-----<p...

The new year opens with a shift hiding in plain sight. As globalization recedes and the world fractures into spheres of influence, Rich argues this isn’t just a political story - it’s a structural shift that favors trend following. In this episode, he challenges the illusion of control baked into most trading systems: why backtests offer comfort, not readiness; why precision breeds fragility; and why the future isn’t something to predict, but something being built in real time. This is a conversation about trading with humility, designing for persistence, and letting go of the need to know...

William White returns to assess a world edging closer to systemic stress. Drawing on decades advising central banks, he describes a macro regime defined not by temporary shocks, but by a deep reversal of the forces that once kept inflation low and debt manageable. From de-globalization and demographic decline to energy constraints and fragile supply chains, the conversation traces how rising costs collide with record public and private leverage. White warns that policy makers are trapped between inflationary pressures and debt sustainability, with no clean exit in sight. The discussion closes on AI, currency fragmentation, and the uncomfortable possibility...

In part two of our year-end roundtable, the Systematic Investor team goes beyond performance to ask harder questions about the path forward. Are today’s drawdowns a signal of structural change? - or just the cost of staying disciplined in a low-volatility regime? As allocators repackage old ideas under new acronyms and model drift tempts even seasoned managers, the conversation turns to what still holds. From AI and capital efficiency to the quiet value of doing less, this is about defending process when the payoff isn’t obvious - and knowing what not to change when pressure mounts. We clos...

In this Ideas Lab episode, Kevin Coldiron speaks with venture capitalist and former founder Aubrie Pagano about what stands between today’s AI hype and a truly transformative AGI economy. Rather than treating AI as destiny, Aubrie maps the frictions that hold it back: hard power limits, fragile industrial data, and agents that still cannot coordinate with humans or each other. She explains why we may be a full capital cycle or two away from real AGI and why that delay is precisely where the best opportunities lie. The conversation then widens into the “Aquarius Economy,” a possible future in whi...

Niels is joined by all 9 amazing co-hosts, to discuss a year that refused to behave. In part one of the annual "roundtable", Niels and the group map why 2025 produced such striking dispersion across trend followers. They revisit the Liberation Day shock and the uncomfortable truth it exposed: results often came down to unglamorous choices like market selection, time horizon, and how quickly risk is resized after clustered volatility and sharp reversals. The conversation then widens to a structural theme: the rapid growth of strategies investors hope will sit outside stocks and bonds, from managed futures and multi strats to...

Moritz Siebert speaks with Doug King about what it really means to trade commodities through cycles, distortions, and stress. Drawing on decades at Cargill and more than twenty years running a commodities hedge fund, Doug explains why innovation keeps scarcity narratives in check, why commodities resist buy and hold logic, and how real edge comes from cash markets rather than futures screens. He reflects on defining trades in oil, nickel, and agriculture, the limits of volatility targeting, and the discipline required to survive violent squeezes. The result is a grounded account of conviction, risk control, and why commodities reward...

Niels and Cem reflect on a year marked by concentration, confidence, and growing structural fragility beneath calm markets. They examine extreme positioning, record low cash levels, and the quiet dominance of reflexive flows over fundamentals. Cem challenges common readings of volatility, explains where real fear hides in options markets, and outlines why tail exposure becomes critical late in cycles. The discussion broadens into portfolio construction, questioning the legacy of 60/40 investing and the illusion of diversification built during falling-rate decades. Grounded in history, market structure, and political cycles, this conversation offers a disciplined framework for navigating regimes where leverage, policy...

In this conversation, the veneer of political continuity is stripped back to reveal a world drifting toward harder borders, sharper identities and a reshaping of power once thought unthinkable. Gary Gerstle traces the erosion of the neoliberal order and the rise of a political logic that places national strength above universal norms. He examines how affordability stress, authoritarian impulses and fragmented parties are redrawing economic life and democratic expectations. The discussion widens into a global map of competing hegemons and the uneasy choices facing Europe and the United States. What emerges is a portrait of a century unsettled, yet...

This episode examines markets through the lens of uncertainty rather than prediction. As the Federal Reserve delivers a rate cut amid dissent and conflicting signals, Alan and Mark explore what it means for systematic investors navigating noisy data, fragile liquidity and shifting regimes. The conversation moves from Fed credibility and term premia to bubbles, leverage and the limits of valuation in an environment shaped by narratives as much as fundamentals. Along the way, they return to a core question at the heart of systematic investing: when uncertainty rises and explanations multiply, should prices remain the final arbiter of risk...

Niels and Alan sit down with BlackRock’s Jeff Rosenberg to examine how the post Covid shift from too little to too much inflation is reshaping portfolios. Jeff explains why bond and equity correlations have changed, why fixed income is drifting back toward income rather than pure diversification, and how fiscal pressure and soft financial repression may influence rates. They explore what systematic really means at BlackRock, from trend ETFs and defensive alpha to market breadth and execution. The conversation ends with the rise of liquid alternatives, whole portfolio thinking and growing equity concentration risk.-----...

Niels and Alan explore how a fragile macro regime reshapes systematic investing, from a politicised Fed succession to widening cracks in a debt-laden, equity-dependent economy. A shifting bond landscape, rising capital demands from AI and renewed tariff risks challenge the old 60/40 orthodoxy. Listener questions on US policy shocks and the Yen carry trade open a deeper look at when trend helps and when it hurts. The episode culminates in a world exclusive of SocGen's 2026 index changes and the first public reveal of Alan’s new paper: The Regime-Adaptive Portfolio, for genuinely resilient, opportunity-aware global wealth compounding intelligently, prudently over th...

Alan Dunne speaks with HSBC Asset Management’s Global Chief Strategist, Joe Little, about what happens when the old macro rules stop working. Joe traces the shift from a demand led, low inflation world to a supply constrained regime of sticky and spiky prices, where 2 percent becomes a floor rather than a target. He explains the “reverse bond conundrum,” rising term premia and the quiet return of fiscal dominance. The conversation explores AI as investment boom, not yet productivity cure, the maturing of emerging markets, the fate of the dollar and how to build truly multipolar portfolios.-----<...

In this week’s Systematic Investor episode, Niels and Andrew Beer explore how a broken 60/40 paradigm is forcing wealth managers into a new world of “other” diversifiers. Andrew reflects on the Goldman Sachs report about private wealth flows, the rise of liquid alts and why big houses are suddenly launching trend ETFs. The conversation dives into replication versus traditional CTAs, the true cost of complexity, and Simplify’s new index-based product built on Andrew’s strategy. Along the way they debate pods, Bitcoin, and Andrew’s evolving metaphor of managed futures as a cloudy, but occasionally crystal-clear, macro crystal ball....

In today’s episode we talk about the world’s oldest, and still most important asset: land. Our guest is the Economist’s Wall Street Editor Mike Bird. Mike is the author of a newly released book The Land Trap: A New History of the World’s Oldest Asset. We discuss the properties that make land unique as an asset and why it serves as collateral for almost two-thirds of all bank loans, making it the backbone of the world’s money supply. Mike explains what the “land trap” means and why China is caught in its grip like no other count...

Rob Carver returns for a conversation that quietly questions the foundations. Is trend following an edge - or just a reward for holding discomfort others can’t? From the role of skew in shaping outcomes to the blind spots in most robustness frameworks, Rob and Niels takes you through the mechanics with uncommon clarity. Listener questions open up the deeper layers: when volatility targeting helps, when it hurts, and why Sharpe Ratios can mislead. They end with a shift that may matter more than it seems: CalPERS moving to a Total Portfolio Approach. Not just a new framework - po...

Recorded live from the Cboe RMC floor in Munich, Cem Karsan sits down with volatility veteran David Dredge for a deep exploration of what truly drives risk. From the crash of 1987 to today’s era of correlation, Dredge reframes volatility not as fear, but freedom. Through his F1 “brakes” analogy, he reveals why protection enables performance, and how convexity builds resilience in an uncertain world. Together, they trace the arc from structured-product flows to demographics, fiscal repression, and the coming global “Hunger Games” for savings. A masterclass in compounding through uncertainty.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING...