SI379: The Illusion of Safety in a Fully Invested Market ft. Cem Karsan

Niels and Cem reflect on a year marked by concentration, confidence, and growing structural fragility beneath calm markets. They examine extreme positioning, record low cash levels, and the quiet dominance of reflexive flows over fundamentals. Cem challenges common readings of volatility, explains where real fear hides in options markets, and outlines why tail exposure becomes critical late in cycles. The discussion broadens into portfolio construction, questioning the legacy of 60/40 investing and the illusion of diversification built during falling-rate decades. Grounded in history, market structure, and political cycles, this conversation offers a disciplined framework for navigating regimes where leverage, policy...