Can Prediction Markets Really Predict the Future?

Prediction markets allow people to bet on future events, from elections to economic data releases, with prices reflecting the crowd’s expectations. Economists often view them as powerful forecasting tools because participants have money at stake, which can lead to more accurate predictions than traditional polling. But these markets also raise concerns about manipulation, insider information, and ethical questions about what events should be traded. Together, we explore both the promise and the risks of prediction markets.

In this episode, we talk about:

* What prediction markets are and how event contracts work

* Why pr...