
"PSA: Predictions markets often have very low liquidity; be careful citing them." by Eye You
Published: March 20, 2026
Duration: 9:03
I see people repeatedly make the mistake of referencing a very low liquidity prediction market and using it to make a nontrivial point. Usually the implication when a market is cited is that it's number should be taken somewhat seriously, that it's giving us a highly informed probability. Sometimes a market is used to analyze some event that recently occurred; reasoning here looks like "the market on outcome O was trading at X%, then event E happened and the market quickly moved to Y%, thus event E made O less/more likely."
Who do I see make this...
Who do I see make this...