Moving Markets

Renewed US-Iran tensions impacted global markets yesterday, pushing oil prices higher and weighing on equities. Bond yields rose, with Japan’s 10-year bond yield actually hitting 3% this morning for the first time since 1996. Tesla gained 5.5%, making it the best performer in the S&P 500 yesterday. Today’s key economic releases include US ISM manufacturing data, but the highlight will undoubtedly be Friday’s closely watched jobs report. Enrico Chinello, Next Generation Research analyst, joins today’s podcast to talk about how intensifying competition in the AI space, particularly from lower-cost Chinese models, is driving AI token prices down, andwhat it all m...

Following hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole, markets have repriced expectations for US monetary policy, with traders now assigning a 60% probability to a rate hike at the Fed's mid-September meeting. Meanwhile, Asian markets have started the week on the back foot, although they have recovered somewhat from their session lows. In today's episode, Chief Economist David Kohl discusses the outlook for US interest rates and the implications for investors. And Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, shares his market perspectives and highlights the most compelling opportunities from a technical analysis standpoint.(00:00...

With yields at historically attractive levels and the yield curve offering attractive opportunities, fixed income is drawing renewed attention from investors seeking both income and capital preservation. But is the short end of the curve really as appealing as it seems—and what should investors know about the risks and rewards?In this episode, Ayako Lehmann, Head of Webcasts & Video at Julius Baer, is joined by Roman Frey, Head of CIO Office Global Fixed Income and voting member of the Fixed Income Investment Committee. Together, they explore why fixed income deserves a place in every portfolio, the im...

NVIDIA added USD 442 billion to its market capitalisation yesterday, with gains spreading beyond chipmakers into software and cybersecurity stocks amid strong earnings releases. Political uncertainty and debt concerns weighed on French markets ahead of the country's first presidential debate yesterday evening. A two-year Japanese government bond auction saw relatively weak demand amid growing expectations of Bank of Japan tightening next month. Reports suggest Venezuela may leave OPEC, potentially weakening the organisation's influence. The focus today is on Kevin Warsh's highly anticipated Jackson Hole speech. What can we learn from past speeches by Fed presidents at Jackson Hole? Tim Gagie...

Markets traded largely sideways ahead of the earnings release from NVIDIA, the world’s most valuable company by market capitalisation. After the US market close, the company once again exceeded expectations, delivering stronger-than-anticipated guidance and sending its shares more than 4% higher in after-hours trading. Elsewhere, US inflation data came in slightly above forecasts, prompting a modest rise in Treasury yields. In today’s episode, we welcome Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, to discuss the outlook for the copper market, the key forces shaping supply and demand, and where prices could be heading next.(00:00) - Intr...

Markets found their footing yesterday despite an intensification of US sanctions on Iran, as traders focused on the shift towards economic rather than military pressure and the resulting decline in oil prices. Equity markets generally moved higher, led by gains in technology shares, while Germany’s stronger-than-expected economic growth figures added to the constructive backdrop. Attention now turns to today’s US inflation data and Nvidia’s earnings report, two events that could shape the market direction in the days ahead. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, shares his views on Treasury buybacks, fiscal policy and the outlook for US...

Both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite ended Monday's trading session lower as chip stocks faltered, while the Dow Jones gained 0.25% on the day. It was a similar story in Asia this morning as investors digested the potential ramifications of 'Operation Economic Outcast', while awaiting not only Nvidia's and Marvell Technology's results and US PCE data tomorrow, but also a highly anticipated speech by Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole this Friday. Damien Ng, Next Generation Research, joins the podcast today to provide his take on the good news last week from the Moderna/Merck cancer trials...

Stronger-than-expected US PMI data could not save equities from a down week as rising bond yields and the Treasury's bond-buying intervention renewed dollar debasement fears, fuelling a blistering rally in gold and Bitcoin. Trade tensions returned as US-Canada talks collapsed over the weekend, and investors brace for a pivotal week featuring NVIDIA earnings and Fed Chair Warsh's Jackson Hole address. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, looks at the recent US dollar weakness from a technical perspective and what it means for other asset classes.(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content (01:06) - Markets wrap-up: Jan...

The Q2 earnings season delivered a strong set of results, with positive surprises across sectors and regions. As investors look ahead to the remainder of the year, the broadening of earnings growth and market participation is creating opportunities beyond the dominant AI and technology themes.In this episode, Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy at Julius Baer, talks to Helen Freer about the key takeaways from the Q2 earnings season. They explore sector performance, forward guidance provided by companies, the ongoing strength of the AI investment cycle, and the implications of increased competition and monetisation in AI...

Markets largely dipped yesterday as geopolitical tensions, rising oil prices and disappointing guidance from Walmart weighed on investor sentiment. After yields fell on Wednesday following the announcement from the US Treasury of doubling buybacks of longer-term debt, yesterday they resumed their upward trend yesterday, even after Treasury Secretary Bessent suggested further increases to the buyback programme. Tim Gagie, Head of FX Advisory in Geneva, joins the show today to talk about the impact of the Treasury’s announcement on the US dollar, and he also shares his latest thoughts on precious metals.(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Pr...

The US Treasury provided a boost to bond and equity markets yesterday, announcing that it will more than double repurchases of 10, 20, and 30-year debt in the next few months. This saw the long bond yield fall 10 bps from its 19-year high on Tuesday, to 5.184%. Gold had its best day since March. US stock markets also closed up on the day with Moderna and Merck providing a boost. Asian equity markets continued the rally overnight and the KOSPI leapt over 6% after SK Hynix announced a big stock buyback. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, joins the podcast today to...

A global bond sell-off sent yields to multi-year highs, dragging equities lower as tech stocks bore the brunt amid persistent inflation concerns. Yet Bank of America's fund manager survey reveals remarkably bullish positioning, with investors reducing cash and piling into equities on hopes of a soft landing and faith in the AI boom. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, shares his views on the latest bond selloff and the drivers behind the move. We also speak with Nenad Dinic from our Equity Strategy Research team about European equities and where he sees opportunities in the region as we...

Higher oil prices and rising bond yields weighed on equity markets, pushing global stocks lower at the start of the week. US Treasury yields remained in focus as strong corporate bond issuance added to concerns over US fiscal deficits. Meanwhile, artificial intelligence remained a standout theme, with Anthropic's rapid growth boosting sentiment across the sector. Enrico Chinello, Next Generation Research, takes a closer look at AI, noting that record investment by hyperscalers and institutional investors continues to support strong demand for AI infrastructure. Investors are increasingly focused on when that spending will translate into earnings and cash flow.<...

Global market performance was mixed last week, with Japanese equities emerging as the standout winner, driven by strong gains in technology and semiconductor stocks. Meanwhile, oil prices surged around 6% amid renewed geopolitical tensions, and longer-term government bond yields moved higher despite softer-than-expected signals from US inflation and consumer data. In this episode, we are joined by Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, who shares his latest insights on the recent weakness in both the US dollar and the Swiss franc. He also explains why he remains constructive on precious metals and discusses the key market trends investors should be...

With Korean semiconductor stocks down nearly 50% from their June peak, has the AI correction finally run its course? Where could the next leg of the AI rally come from, and how are China’s cheaper AI models — including DeepSeek’s rumoured new release — reshaping the competitive landscape?Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong at Julius Baer, speaks with Hong Hao, Managing Partner and CIO of Lotus Asset Management, on these latest developments in AI, as well as the broader market themes driving China and global markets — including the rotation back into value names, China’s gr...

US equities continued their upward climb this week, supported by a series of encouraging inflation releases, while European stocks have taken a breather after hitting record highs earlier in the week. In fixed income markets, government bond yields moved lower as investors scaled back expectations for rate hikes from the Federal Reserve. Joining us today is Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research, who shares his latest outlook on the energy market and explains why he continues to expect oil prices to trend lower in the months ahead.(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment C...

The latest US inflation data came in in line with expectations and reinforced the view that the Federal Reserve is likely to keep interest rates unchanged in September. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite both finished the day in positive territory yesterday, with technology stocks leading the gains. Earlier in Europe, equities eased as investors balanced earnings releases with ongoing geopolitical developments. Oil markets are weighing up the escalating tensions in the Middle East against softer global demand expectations from both OPEC and the IEA. Tim Gagie, Head of FX Advisory in Geneva, joins the show today to...

Markets struggled for direction yesterday, with investors balancing geopolitical tensions, higher oil prices and a busy corporate news flow. US equities fell for a second straight session as technology shares came under pressure, while European stocks consolidated near record highs and Asian markets traded mixed overnight. With markets searching for direction, the spotlight now shifts to today's US inflation report, a release that could prove pivotal for interest-rate expectations and broader investor sentiment. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, joins us to discuss what the inflation figures mean for bond investors, while Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy...

Eurozone growth expectations have improved, supported by a strong earnings season. Oil prices rose on renewed Strait of Hormuz tensions, while OPEC output recovered in July. AI investment remained in focus, with Intel raising capital, Nvidia securing funding for AI infrastructure, and regulatory changes supporting additional financing channels. However, this did not support the Nasdaq, which edged lower on Monday. Gold and silver extended their rally from late last week, supported by rebounding gold ETF demand. Enrico Chinello, Next Generation Research, discusses the state of AI infrastructure spending, arguing that it is not a bubble, while stressing that investors...

Markets are starting the week on a strong footing. Softer US jobs data, falling bond yields, robust corporate earnings, and Berkshire Hathaway's return to share buybacks have fuelled optimism among investors. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, discusses what the latest signals mean for equities, the US dollar, gold, and silver, and why he believes key market trends still have room to run.(00:00) - Introduction: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content (01:10) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content (07:08) - Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis Research (11:32) - Closing remarks: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment...