Many Happy Returns

Stocks have rallied to record highs while the Iran war is merely paused, oil prices are elevated, and inflation remains sticky. But while equity investors cheer the recovery, is the bond market quietly telling a different story? And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: What is the crack spread? --- Thank you to Trading 212 for sponsoring this episode. Claim free fractional shares worth up to ‎£⁠100. Just create and verify a Trading 212 Invest or Stocks ISA account, make a minimum deposit of £1, and use the promo code "RAMIN" within 10 days of signi...

"Do Your Own Research" is one of the most parroted phrases in investing — slapped on every stock tip, TikTok video and crypto tweet. But what does good research actually look like for a retail investor? And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Do contrarian investors actually make money? --- Thank you to Trading 212 for sponsoring this episode. Claim free fractional shares worth up to ‎£⁠100. Just create and verify a Trading 212 Invest or Stocks ISA account, make a minimum deposit of £1, and use the promo code "RAMIN" within 10 days of signing up...

The investing world runs on numbers. We look at the statistical tricks that make bad investments look good, mediocre track records look brilliant, and risks disappear entirely. And in the Dumb Question of the Week: What makes a finding 'statistically significant'? --- Thank you to Trading 212 for sponsoring this episode. Claim free fractional shares worth up to ‎£⁠100. Just create and verify a Trading 212 Invest or Stocks ISA account, make a minimum deposit of £1, and use the promo code "RAMIN" within 10 days of signing up, or use the following link: Sponso...

After weeks of market turmoil, asset prices across the board are lower than they were. But is anything actually cheap yet? We grab our valuation toolkit and go bargain hunting across stocks, bonds, and commodities to find out what's on sale. And in the Dumb Question of the Week: Does valuation tell you anything? --- Thank you to Trading 212 for sponsoring this episode. Claim free fractional shares worth up to ‎£⁠100. Just create and verify a Trading 212 Invest or Stocks ISA account, make a minimum deposit of £1, and use the promo code "RAMIN"...

Your portfolio was probably designed for falling interest rates and cheap oil. That is no longer the world we live in. Equity indices have minimal energy exposure. Bonds amplify losses during a rising rate environment. And even gold is down 20% from its peak. So what you can actually do when the big asset classes are struggling? And in the Dumb Question of the Week: What is the Bloomberg Aggregate Bond Index? --- Thank you to Lightyear for sponsoring this episode. I opened my 2025/2026 ISA with Lightyear. If you want to try...

You've seen the oil price soar. But crude is just the start—the Iran conflict is sending shockwaves through natural gas, fertiliser, helium and a host of other commodities we take for granted. What does it all mean for inflation, interest rates, and how you might want to position your portfolio? And in the Dumb Question of the Week: Does the futures curve predict where prices are going in the future? --- Thank you to Lightyear for sponsoring this episode. I opened my 2025/2026 ISA with Lightyear. If you want to try th...

What does popular finance content reveal about everyday investors? Damien Jordan from Damien Talks Money joins us to explore the gap between the videos people click on and the information they actually need. And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Has making finance content changed how you invest? --- Thank you to Lightyear for sponsoring this episode. I opened my 2025/2026 ISA with Lightyear. If you want to try them out as well, use PENSIONCRAFT to get between £10 and £100 in a fractional share or ETF in your General Investment Account. See...

No one likes to lose money. And some funds are designed to deliver a positive return whether markets go up, down, or sideways. Sounds easy. It isn't. We’re joined by Jasmine Yeo, fund manager at Ruffer, to discuss the art of capital preservation. And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: If markets usually go up, why spend so much time thinking about what could go wrong? --- Thank you to Lightyear for sponsoring this episode. I opened my 2025/2026 ISA with Lightyear. If you want to try them...

The US Supreme Court struck down Trump's tariffs in a landmark 6-3 ruling, and Trump responded by immediately imposing new ones under a different law. We look at what the ruling actually means and whether any of this changes the outlook for investors. And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: What is the "spaghetti bowl" effect? --- Thank you to Trading 212 for sponsoring this episode. Claim free fractional shares worth up to ‎£⁠100. Just create and verify a Trading 212 Invest or Stocks ISA account, make a minimum deposit of £1, and use the p...

Bitcoin has had everything going for it: a crypto-friendly president, ETF approval, congressional legislation, institutional adoption, a strategic reserve executive order. And yet the price has halved from its all-time high. So what’s going on? And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: What happens when it costs more to mine a bitcoin than it’s actually worth? --- Thank you to Trading 212 for sponsoring this episode. Claim free fractional shares worth up to ‎£⁠100. Just create and verify a Trading 212 Invest or Stocks ISA account, make a minimum deposit of £1, and u...

A trillion dollars was wiped off software stocks after Anthropic released an AI legal tool. Suddenly the market is asking: if AI agents can do the work, why pay for the software? The "SaaSpocalypse" has dragged everything from Microsoft to Salesforce down double digits, leaving Wall Street split on whether this is an existential risk or a massive overreaction. And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: What is a moat? --- Thank you to Trading 212 for sponsoring this episode. Claim free fractional shares worth up to ‎£⁠100. Just create and verify a...

After an incredible run, gold and silver just suffered their worst day in over forty years. Gold fell 11%. Silver dropped 30%. So what caused the crash? And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Why do we spend billions digging gold out of a hole, just to put it back in a different hole? --- Thank you to Trading 212 for sponsoring this episode. Claim free fractional shares worth up to ‎£⁠100. Just create and verify a Trading 212 Invest or Stocks ISA account, make a minimum deposit of £1, and use the promo code "RAMIN" wi...

After a decade of UK underperformance, Vanguard is going global. The UK’s most popular fund range is dialling back the domestic tilt, and launching a purely market-cap weighted alternative. We look at what's changing, whether you need to do anything, and if home bias is actually a mistake. And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Why are multi-asset funds limited to stocks and bonds? ---Get in touch 📧 mhr@pensioncraft.com 🎧 many-happy-returns.captivate.fm --- Join PensionCraft 🌐 Become a member at pensioncra...

President Trump is threatening tariffs on eight NATO allies to force a deal on Greenland. Europe says it isn’t for sale. So what happens when an immovable object meets an unpredictable force? Tit-for-tat counter-tariffs, an untested “trade bazooka,” or the nuclear option: leveraging $8 trillion in US assets. And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Can a Treasury auction fail? ---Get in touch 📧 mhr@pensioncraft.com 🎧 many-happy-returns.captivate.fm --- Join PensionCraft 🌐 Become a member at pensioncraft.com ▶️ Subscribe on YouTube...

The US has captured Venezuela’s president, the White House is openly threatening to invade a NATO ally, and the Fed Chair is under politically-motivated criminal investigation. Apart from that, everything's fine. But should you actually change anything about your portfolio? Or is "carrying on as normal" always the answer? And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Is any asset risk-free? ---Get in touch 📧 mhr@pensioncraft.com 🎧 many-happy-returns.captivate.fm --- Join PensionCraft 🌐 Become a member at pensioncraft.com ▶️ Subscrib...

Where does investing end and gambling begin? From Premium Bonds to meme stocks to deep-out-of-the-money options, today’s markets are full of bets that look a lot like lottery tickets. The line between rational risk-taking and pure chance has never been blurrier. So what really separates a calculated investment from a coin flip? And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Are boring stocks better? ---Get in touch 📧 mhr@pensioncraft.com 🎧 many-happy-returns.captivate.fm --- Join PensionCraft 🌐 Become a member at pen...

2026 is here, and markets are shifting in surprising ways. From jobless growth to energy gluts, we look at the trends that could shape the global economy over the coming year. And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Are we still on track for the Roaring 20s? --- Thank you to Trading 212 for sponsoring this episode. Claim free fractional shares worth up to ‎£⁠100. Just create and verify a Trading 212 Invest or Stocks ISA account, make a minimum deposit of £1, and use the promo code "RAMIN" within 10 days of signing up, or use th...

We challenge your assumptions about stocks, property, economic growth and more, with ten facts that seem impossible—but aren't. Stocks beat cash, right? GDP growth helps returns, doesn't it? And war tanks the stock market... right? And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: What can Christmas Trees teach us about the futures market? --- Thank you to Trading 212 for sponsoring this episode. Claim free fractional shares worth up to ‎£⁠100. Just create and verify a Trading 212 Invest or Stocks ISA account, make a minimum deposit of £1, and use the promo code "RAMIN...

Which assets made The Naughty List this year? Some of 2025's most confident calls turned into cautionary tales—from momentum trades that stalled to consensus positions that backfired. And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Is any asset immune to interest rates? --- Thank you to Trading 212 for sponsoring this episode. Claim free fractional shares worth up to ‎£⁠100. Just create and verify a Trading 212 Invest or Stocks ISA account, make a minimum deposit of £1, and use the promo code "RAMIN" within 10 days of signing up, or use the following link: <...

The Bank of England has just released the results of its 2025 stress test. In their nightmare scenario, inflation surges, house prices tumble, markets tank… and all seven major UK banks still pass. So the financial system might survive a crash. But would you? And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Are British banks too big? --- Thank you to Trading 212 for sponsoring this episode. Claim free fractional shares worth up to ‎£⁠100. Just create and verify a Trading 212 Invest or Stocks ISA account, make a minimum deposit of £1, and use the promo c...